When our model says a WNBA prop has a 60% chance to hit, it hits about 60% of the time. Across 1,928 graded props this season our stated hit-probabilities track real-world results within a few points — the reliability curve rides the line, good or bad.
We sort every graded prop into buckets by the hit-probability our model gave the side we projected, then check what fraction actually hit. A perfectly honest model sits on the diagonal: the dots should hug the dashed line. Where a dot falls below the line, the model was over-confident in that band.
| Predicted | Hit (actual) | Miss | Props |
|---|
Calibration is the number that matters most here — across the whole range, our stated probabilities should match real-world hit frequencies, and ours land within a few points of the line. Straight-up accuracy is how often the side our model leaned (≥50%) actually hit. Brier score is the average squared error between the probability we gave and what happened (lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip, 0 = perfect).
These are measured on the same minutes-driven projection model we use to price every prop on the board — not a curated subset. WNBA player-prop lines are a sharp, efficient market, so honest calibration sitting near a coin flip is expected; we'd rather show you the real curve than a flattering one.